Yes, it's still early in the 2026 Major League Baseball season. Through Sunday's games, most teams have played just 17% of the 162-game schedule. But it is getting late in a hurry for two of the teams expected to compete for a World Series this October.
The New York Mets have committed $370 million on player payroll this year, with well over $100 million in luxury tax penalties. The Philadelphia Phillies have committed $290 million to player payroll this year, plus luxury tax penalties. Remember, these are the types of payrolls that sports media, small-market teams and fans have used to push for a work stoppage in the 2027 season and the introduction of a salary cap.
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And yet, as we reach the end of April, both teams have almost eliminated themselves from the National League East, and put their hopes of a postseason spot in serious jeopardy.
This past weekend was supposed to be a turning point for the Mets and Phillies, with key stars returning from injury. Instead, things just got worse. Much worse.
Juan Soto rejoined the Mets recently, returning from a calf injury and ostensibly bringing some offensive firepower to New York. Almost immediately, Francisco Lindor then went down with an injury of his own, and the Mets offense somehow got worse.
On Sunday, the Mets played a doubleheader against the lowly Colorado Rockies at Citi Field, and got outscored 6-1 in a sweep. That led to the Rockies posting a suggestion to the Empire State Building in an attempt to troll the Mets.
The Rockies have a $122 million estimated payroll for 2026, and $27 million of that is Kris Bryant, whose career is effectively over.
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As a team thus far, the Mets lineup is hitting .226/.288/.337. They've been 21% worse than league average offensively, leading to scoring 26 fewer runs than an average offense would score. In 28 games. They've hit, as a team, 20 total home runs this year. Houston Astros star Yordan Alvarez has hit 11 by himself. In fact, the whole roster has been outhomered by just Alvarez and White Sox third baseman Munetaka Murakami alone.
Put it all together and the Mets have scored just 92 runs, the fewest of any team in baseball. They have the second-worst run differential at -29.
The team with the worst run differential? The nearly $300 million Philadelphia Phillies.
The Phillies got Zack Wheeler back from injury this weekend in Atlanta, and while his start did help Philadelphia snap their disastrous 10-game losing streak, they immediately reverted back to form on Sunday, losing 6-2 to Chris Sale. Incredibly, the Phillies are now 3-15 over their last 18 games. As a team, they have an ERA of 5.13, and are hitting .219/.294/.362. Alec Bohm has been arguably the worst everyday hitter in the sport with just a .412 OPS. Again, this is a team with a nearly $300 million payroll and players like Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, JT Realmuto, Christopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo.
They're now 9-19, just like the Mets, with a -50 run differential and 10.5 game deficit in the NL East.
This is where many fans will say "it's early," and yes, it is. But while you can't win anything in April or May, you can, in fact, lose it. Both teams had playoff probabilities exceeding 85% just a few weeks ago. Yet as of Monday, have seen their odds drop into the low 30's.
Nearly $700 million in payroll, hundreds more in luxury taxes, star power like Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Francisco Lindor and Kyle Schwarber, and both teams are now overwhelmingly likely to be staying home while the small-market Pirates, Reds or Diamondbacks play into October.
Some of both teams' underperformance is down to poor luck; the Phillies' batting average on balls in play is just .256, for example, and their expected pitching stats are better than their ERA. But falling 10.5 games back of the Braves has all but ended the division race already. Atlanta now has an 84% chance of winning the East, while both the Mets and Phillies have dropped to around 7%. This is why it's not as easy to "buy" a championship as many fans think it is. A few weeks of underperformance, injuries or bad luck can change the outlook of an entire season. And that's exactly what's happened here.
